by Marco Alberti, Ambassador of Italy to Albania 

Digitalization is reshaping the Public Administration in both policy-making and service delivery. Data revolution helps governments meet public expectations and become more efficient and resilient, improving their performance. Yet, while accelerating the innovation of public sector, the deployment of digital technologies brings another key-challenge: speed. 

Speed is the new currency 

Speed has become a strategic factor, because it is linked to innovation, which is the driving force of digital society. Ensuring speed and agility leads to superior performance. “Speed ​​is the new currency,” says Marc Benioff, founder and CEO of Salesforce. Sycamore, Google’s quantum processor, takes a few minutes to process as many as calculations that a common laptop would do in 10,000 years. In the international relations domain, the ability to respond quickly to volatile, unpredictable circumstances has become a critical factor for defining the new balance of power, and perhaps for defining the same concepts of influence and power. 

Unlike in the past, diplomacy and international affairs can no longer afford to slowly adapt to changes, as their pace demands almost business-like agility to stay abreast and relevant. Data technologies, and especially generative AI, are changing the mechanisms that regulate international relations, bringing continuous innovation and growing speed. Consequently, they will affect all diplomatic activities: from geopolitical analysis to negotiation; from support to export and internationalization of companies to consular services. The need to adopt data-driven models in order to manage political, institutional and economic pressures raises the bar and stretches diplomacy. On one hand, technology is expanding the sphere of diplomatic competence, with multiple and diverse calls for action; on the other hand, increasingly shorter action/reaction time is requested to face circumstances and perform well. In such digitized context, the main challenge for diplomacy consists in combining two kinds of “intelligence”: the contextual one, i.e. the ability to understand the context, leveraging on-the-ground presence and powerful multi-stakeholder networks of diplomats, with the artificial one, i.e. the ability to exploit and optimize the increasing power of data and algorithms.

Key factors to be fast: throughput and latency 

The primary objective for diplomacy is to unlock public value through greater efficiency and improved performance. In digital contexts, reaching out to such goals mostly depends on speed, which, in turn, is the result of multiple variables. Two of them, similarly to what happens in IT systems, are essential to work faster and increase productivity: throughput and latency.

Throughput 

The throughput indicates the maximum capacity of a system to support the workload in a due unit of time. In information technology, this variable is measured in queries or bytes per second. By analogy, the throughput of diplomacy consists of the ability of central and peripheral structures to absorb the requests received, and carry out the various tasks, in a given time. Speed includes the ability to deliver new or highly appropriate content, with no delay. When a system is overloaded, that is, it receives more “queries” than it can handle, it becomes slow and loses efficiency. If it is not possible, to reduce loads or, alternatively, to increase resources, a viable solution to restore speed is a load balancing among servers. The same concept applies to organizations. Overloading people or teams, even if they can handle it, reduces efficiency and is detrimental to the organization outcome. Dividing tasks maximizes skills and knowledge of each individual, with positive impact on the working capacity (and speed) of the whole organization. Another solution is diversifying peoples’ professional experience. Being skilled to do something, helps do it better and faster. Innovation communities and cross-functional teams, as well as “off-career” job experiences, make the diplomats’ expertise multidisciplinary, and diversify the spectrum of their skills, with positive effects on workload capacity, executive speed and quality of performance. 

Latency

Latency indicates how quickly a system responds to stimuli. More precisely, in the IT field, latency measures the interval between the moment the input is sent and the moment the output is available. When a server is so much loaded that its latency exceeds the so-called “user timeout”, i.e. the maximum time the user is willing to wait before reacting, requests begin to fail, with negative impact on efficiency and reputation. According to a recent survey, 47% of online consumers demand that a web page replies in less than 4 seconds before abandoning it^[1]. In computer systems, latency is improved by increasing the bandwidth, i.e. the support infrastructure. To provide quality services, the bandwidth must be broad, which means able to allow transmission and reception of data at a connection speed faster than 2Mbit/s. The same for diplomacy. The widespread presence of embassies and consulates throughout the world grants public diplomacy the geographical proximity essential to collect, transmit and manage big data, minimizing the action/reaction time of its structures. However, to be efficient, diplomacy 5.0 must have its “broadband”, which consists of technological architecture and human resources skilled enough to manage digitalized processes, leveraging on data to design and execute strategies. The challenge posed by data-driven models, hence, does not only concern updating certain tools and infrastructures, but also (and maybe above all) designing advanced skilling, upskilling and re-skilling processes.

The correlation between speed and leadership 

Speed is the combination of doing things fast and right. Effective leaders are able to plan and execute with speed, because they are quick without being sloppy. A study carried out by Zenger and Folkman finds that in 95% of cases the quality of leadership refers to the speed shown by leaders in spotting problems, learning, anticipating scenarios, pro-acting or re-acting to circumstances^[2]. Digitalization, and especially AI, can empower people, but only if leaders take a broad view of their capabilities and deeply consider the implications of applying technologies to the organization. To promote innovation in public and private organizations (including diplomacy) is a foremost accountability of leaders; it should push them to reflect not only on the potential factors that make innovation work, but also on the organizational and contextual factors that prevent innovation from achieving its outcomes. In such perspective, the correlation between (transformational) leadership and speed relies on three main nexus. The first nexus is speed/style of leadership. A rigid pyramid-like top-down management attitude is too slow to keep the quick pace of digitalization, while a shift to an open, more flexible leadership style can bring performance from average to excellence. Today, rather than control, leaders should provide ability of designing and redesigning creative and collaborative relationships within teams, useful for creating value. The second nexus is speed/competence. As skills grow and improve in quality, the speed of planning and executing strategies increases, while mistakes and inefficiencies reduce. The answer to an increasingly complex, multidisciplinary and dynamic international environment, therefore, relies on an increasingly agile, fast and competent leadership. This rule applies to every kind of profession, and diplomacy is no exception. The last nexus refers to trust. Within an organization, be it public or private, low levels of trust inevitably slow down processes and generate high operating costs. Conversely, a work environment based on mutual trust encourages the devolution of power and accountability, speeding up processes and reducing costs. Building trust is functional to creating value, and, therefore, it is a leadership imperative. 

Big vision, small steps: speeding-up a data-driven diplomacy

Digital and data technologies accelerate the shift towards a data-driven paradigm. Even foreign policy strategies depend every day more on the (systematic) collection and (analytical) reading of massive amounts of data. While digital diplomacy is how diplomats use some digital tools to perform their activity, data-driven diplomacy refers to “turning bytes into insights”, which means understanding how data is challenging (and changing) the traditional way to conduct diplomacy. The UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office, for example, created the FCDO Labs, to develop the skills required for consolidating data-driven models in foreign policy. The Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs established internal “Big Data Units”, made up of professionals specialized in the analysis and systematization of data, to make it accessible to diplomats and policy-makers. The U.S. Department of State launched the first-ever Enterprise Data Strategy (EDS), to empower its global workforce with the tools and skills to use data as a critical instrument of diplomacy. 

McKinsey latest research estimates that generative AI has the potential to create value equivalent to $2.6 trillion to $4.4 trillion in global corporate profits annually^[3]. Almost every Government, large company and organization in the world is working to outline an AI strategy, because it enables to harness the power of data and to unlock new possibilities. In just a short time, indeed, the focus has shifted from digital technologies to data and from data to the technologies capable of creating and processing it, i.e. generative artificial intelligence. Such automated systems help simulate scenarios and predict the evolution of trends, but, in so doing, they also contribute to accelerate the operational speed. In the first round of Iranian nuclear negotiations, the US Department of Energy used AI applications to build the replica of an Iranian nuclear site, foreseeing evolutions of uranium enrichment. According to trustworthy sources^[4], within five years the AI systems will be able to manage 100 trillion parameters, with deep transformative impacts on any domain of human action. 

To keep the pace and stay relevant, diplomacy should integrate the value-laden judgment of diplomats with data-driven insights, combining contextual and artificial intelligence. The former allows diplomats to acquire deeper knowledge and tacit wisdom, which often remain beyond the reach of algorithms, and adapt that knowledge to real world scenarios. The latter augments the output of diplomacy, including ability to predict, pro-act or re-act in real time to various circumstances. Excessive faith in data would lead diplomacy to serious mistakes, but keeping diplomacy completely away from data would risk to limit, or even to disrupt, it. 

Adapting a data-driven model, built for flexibility and high speed, to public diplomacy is a complex process. Some steps to mitigate it are the following: a) defining a data-driven vision for diplomacy, based on a measurable, target-oriented and time-bound action plan; b) outlining a tech-forward strategy, which consists not simply of updating some software and tools, but building a strong foundational “digital core” for diplomacy, able to integrate data, AI and other technologies. Such evolution would allow creating large-scale information systems and interoperability both among diplomatic structures and between them and other Ministries or Institutions. For example, between Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Ministries of Defense, that are quickly progressing in the application of AI to the national security and the warfare, or even between public and private sector; c) breaking the “big vision into small steps”^[5]. If conceived in a bigger vision, realistic shorter-term goals and manageable subtasks help build momentum, overcome procrastination and get faster to the desired goal.

Conclusions

For Milan Kundera, speed is the ecstasy offered to human kind by the technological revolution. Human inclination is to go faster and faster. This fact has boosted progress, but it has also generated concerns. Besides ethical questions, for example, the rise of generative AI has a deep (and still partially unknown) impact on security, on both physical and cyber sides. Furthermore, speed overstresses the structural weaknesses of people, organizations and even of national States, enhancing social paradoxes and environmental costs. The ICT sector, for example, already generates the same quantity of CO2 emissions as aviation. Continuing on this way, by 2025 it will constitute 5.5% of global emissions^[6]. 

Key insight #1: Combine conventional approaches with a data-driven model. Humans assisted by AI could outperform both human-alone and AI-alone. In a tech-driven, faster-paced international environment, diplomacy could rely on a tech-forward strategy to augment its professional output and its value generation. Endowing the Ministries of Foreign Affairs with scalable IT architectures, and with competent data analysts, is key to provide diplomats, as well as policy makers, with qualified information and future-proof knowledge. 

Key insight #2: Embrace technology to close up the “tech-fluency” gap. Technology is exponentially increasing the number of hard choices, and simultaneously reducing the time available to make decisions. Data-driven models improve the throughput of diplomacy and reduce its latency time, with positive impact on its operational speed and efficiency. Yet, such models require massive investments to support infrastructures and workers, as they need new skills. Lifelong learning and practice in adapting to change are increasingly more important. From this point of view, a public-private cooperation is key for both parties.  

Key insight #3: Incorporate AI as an enabler to scale value. Artificial intelligence is pervasive; it will change everything, including the mechanisms that regulate international relations and how diplomacy creates value. As AI grows more sophisticated and widespread, it offers diplomacy unprecedented opportunities to accelerate strategy cycle times and be more responsive. On the other hand, AI will subject diplomacy to (stronger) pressures, (unpredictable) risks and (relevant) concerns. Rethinking diplomacy in a data-driven fashion implies to modernize its operational code, while preventing it from downsides. 

The question is not “if” we need diplomacy, but “what” diplomacy we need to face the digital transformation. Even though big data and technologies boost tremendous advancements in diplomacy, the human factor will remain fundamental. No matter how powerful technology becomes, diplomats are here to stay, as their contextual intelligence will continue to bring a unique set of skills and perspectives to the table. Speed is inextricably linked with digital innovation and becomes a critical factor of success for diplomacy too. Yet, instead of rushing into new technologies and processes, a progressive and methodical approach can ultimately accelerate the adoption of data-driven models. Focusing on the core capabilities and the organizational enablers that support those capabilities can build a strong foundation for sustainable innovation and tech modernization of diplomacy. The key is staying committed to a long-term vision, while remaining flexible and adaptable to the frequent changes in the digital landscape. Big vision and small steps is the best way to get there. 

The opinions are expressed in a personal capacity and are not attributable to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation. 

^[1]https://www.hobo-web.co.uk/your-website-design-should-load-in-4-seconds/#:~:text=following%20key%20findings%3A-,47%20percent%20of%20consumers%20expect%20a%20web%20page%20to%20load,render%20before%20abandoning%20the%20site.

^[2] https://www.leadershipnow.com/leadershop/9781259837388.html

^[3] https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/overview/in-the-news/ai-could-increase-corporate-profits-by-4-trillion-a-year-according-to-new-research

^[4] Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, quoted by Amb. Stefano Ronca in: “Lettera diplomatica n. 1360”, Rome, 20.09.23

^[5]https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/small-steps-big-vision-scaling-a-purpose-driven-business-at-coachhub

^[6] https://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/12/11/tsunami-data-consume-one-fifth-global-electricity-2025/

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By David J. Kostelancik

January 20, 2026

When Congress passed the Western Balkans Democracy and Prosperity Act as part of the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), it sent a clear signal: energy security in Southeastern Europe is no longer a peripheral economic issue — it is a core U.S. national security concern.

The Western Balkans sit at a geopolitical crossroads between Euro-Atlantic institutions and sustained Russian and Chinese influence. For years, energy dependence has been an effective tool used by unscrupulous powers to exert pressure. Control over supply, opaque infrastructure deals, and corruption linked to energy contracts have undermined democratic governance and regional stability. Congress recognized a basic reality: countries that lack control over their energy are easier to pressure, manipulate, and destabilize.

The new NDAA establishes a long-term US strategy for the region with energy at its center. It mandates cooperation with Balkan countries to diversify energy sources, reduce reliance on Russian energy, accelerate the transition to renewables, and modernize infrastructure to withstand cyberattacks and external interference. It also strengthens sanctions measures that can be used against individuals and entities that employ corruption — often through energy deals — to threaten regional stability.

Markets: Regulatory reform can help ensure market transparency through modernized energy markets. Russian ownership of critical energy assets, including midstream and downstream companies, presents a serious challenge in some countries (for example, the Russian-owned oil refinery in Serbia). US and European energy and infrastructure investment in these countries can help drive sector modernization and a competitive investment environment where transparency and market-based decision-making counter malign Russian and Chinese foreign investment.

Diversification: Advancing diversification in the Balkan gas, electricity, and oil sectors counters Russian dominance and political leverage. Existing and/or new pipelines and liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals can be better used and coordinated to diversify gas imports. Greek and Croatian LNG infrastructure already delivers alternatives to Russian gas throughout the Balkans. Investments in renewable energy, energy efficiency, and expanded grid integration will reduce wholesale energy prices and subsidies and boost resilience.

Mobilization of Public/Private Investment: The U.S. must continue to make energy diplomacy a priority. Low investment has long plagued the Balkans. Opportunities now exist to modernize energy systems to optimize the electricity and heating sectors, including through gas-to-power and energy efficiency methods. By focusing diplomatic engagement and facilitating financing through the US Development Finance Corporation (DFC), the US can boost investment in an energy sector that increases competitiveness and ensures security, including cyber security and investment screening mechanisms that uncover attempts by malign actors to gain influence.

Albania provides a good example. In the country’s north, the 600-megawatt Tropojë Wind Renewable Energy Park is moving forward as one of the largest renewable energy projects in the Western Balkans. Developed by CWP, a leading American renewable energy company, the project illustrates how US-aligned investment can deliver both economic and strategic returns.

For Albania, Tropojë represents a decisive step toward energy sovereignty. The country has historically relied almost entirely on hydropower, leaving it vulnerable to droughts and volatile international energy markets. In dry years, Albania has been forced to purchase large quantities of imported energy at inflated prices, exposing the economy to shocks and external pressure.

By diversifying into wind and solar, Albania is reducing that vulnerability and insulating itself from supply disruptions. By the end of this decade, renewables such as wind and solar are expected to account for roughly 30% of Albania’s energy mix — enough to ensure domestic self-sufficiency and generate surplus energy for export to European markets. Energy demands that once drained national resources through electricity and fossil fuel imports will be replaced by revenues and economic resilience.

The broader implications extend beyond Albania. By expanding clean energy capacity, Albania is positioning itself as a net contributor to Europe’s energy security at a time when the continent is actively working to reduce reliance on Russian fossil fuels. Every additional source of reliable energy in Europe strengthens the transatlantic alliance and reduces the strategic space available to adversaries.

For the US, this matters because energy-secure partners are more stable partners. Equally important, American companies bring more than capital. They bring transparency, competitive procurement, and compliance with rule-of-law norms. Countries that can meet their own energy needs are less susceptible to coercion and better positioned to sustain democratic institutions.

Congress explicitly addressed this risk in the NDAA by requiring reporting on foreign influence in the energy sector and authorizing assistance to secure infrastructure against cyber and physical threats. Energy systems are strategic targets. Protecting them is essential to regional stability and alliance security.

This is why energy investment in the Western Balkans belongs within the national security conversation. It lowers the risk of instability on NATO’s southeastern flank, reduces the need for crisis-driven US engagement, and reinforces democratic governance through economic resilience.

Sustained US engagement in Balkans energy investment will not only support economic growth — it will strengthen America’s national security and the stability of Europe as a whole. We have a strategic opportunity, if we take it. Courtesy of the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).

David J. Kostelancik is a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA). He was a career member of the US Senior Foreign Service, holding the rank of Minister Counselor. David served as deputy coordinator for terrorism prevention and detention in the State Department’s Bureau of Counterterrorism from 2024 to 2025. From 2021 to 2023, he was foreign policy adviser to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. His overseas postings as deputy chief of mission and chargé d’affaires at the US Embassy in Hungary and two postings to Russia. He holds a bachelor’s degree in mathematics and political science from Northwestern University, a master’s degree in Russian and East European studies from the University of Michigan, and a Master of Science degree in national security strategy from the National War College.

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In 1919, Vatra, a pan-Albanian association functioning as something of a shadow Albanian government in the United States, made an unprecedented request to Secretary of State Robert Lansing: Albania should become an American protectorate. Just three months later, at the Paris Peace Conference, President Woodrow Wilson rejected the Secret Treaty of London, which would have effectively erased Albania from the map as an independent state. Thereafter, in the  autumn of 1946, Albania issued an ultimatum to the US to withdraw its diplomatic mission, forcing its members to flee under the protection of American warships. For the next 50 years, the US was branded Albania’s greatest and most dangerous enemy by the communist regime. Yet, through it all, two generations of Albanians held onto the hope that one day ‘the Americans would come to liberate the country from communism’. In 1991, Albania and the United States re-established diplomatic ties and today Albania is perhaps the most pro-American country in the world, as well as being the only aspiring EU member with near-unanimous support for membership.

Throughout modern Albanian history, relations with the US have either been exclusive and privileged or non-existent. To understand and explain contemporary Albanian-American relations, it is essential to deconstruct myths and explain paradoxes as a necessity for encouraging democratisation of the asymmetric relations between a great power and a small state so as to protect and develop these relations in the years ahead.

‘Myths are lies that tell the truth’

On June 5, 2007, President George W. Bush was greeted in Prague by two thousand protesters opposing US plans to install a missile defence system in Europe. Five days later, tens of thousands gathered to welcome him in Tirana’s main square, decorated as if for a grand celebration with portraits, Albanian and American flags together with slogans for the occasion. For the older generation, this might have evoked memories of similar receptions during communist times when Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev or Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai visited Albania in 1959 and 1965 respectively. This resemblance, along with Albania’s history of asymmetric relationships with great powers, leads some scholars to categorise Albania-US relations as ‘client-patron’. As with many small states, over the past one hundred years Albania has sought various alliances, first with the Soviet Union, then China and finally the United States.

However, careful observation of Albania’s foreign relations does not necessarily support this pattern, with Albanians’ love for the US at first glance seeming irrational. Looking back over one hundred years of relations, this love has certainly been grounded in rationality – even as it was becoming a myth. As the ancient thinker Aphthonius noted, “Myths are lies that tell the truth”. However, where does the rationality lie in Albanians’ love for America and what are some of the truths behind the myth? Regardless of their asymmetry, Albania’s ties with the US have always revolved around crucial issues vital to the Albanian state and nation. For instance, in 1919 President Wilson became a national hero for Albanians when he intervened to save the country from partition. Relations with the US, in Albania’s case, have defined its relations with the West. After the Second World War, Albania’s society was split: pro-Western Albanians, which were in the majority, looked to the US for economic and cultural guidance, while pro-Eastern factions turned to the Soviet Union. It is important to note that at this time, when the country had less than one million inhabitants, more than a quarter of a million Albanians had either emigrated to the US or had family there.

As mentioned earlier, in modern Albanian history, relations with the US have been either exclusive and privileged or non-existent. When they have existed, they have been deeply rooted in principles of freedom and democracy. Hence, in 1945 the US refused to recognise rigged elections and the communist regime of Enver Hoxha, with the result that less than twelve months later Albania’s new communist government forced the US to withdraw its diplomatic mission. In 1991, restoration of relations hinged on America’s demand for the existence of a democratic opposition in Albania. Hence, from 1992 Albania embraced democratic reforms and strengthened ties with the West. In 2008, Washington championed Albania’s NATO membership, the greatest achievement of modern Albania since the fall of communism, thereby firmly linking Albania’s present and future with the West and as such becoming the United States’ most reliable Balkan ally.

As a sign of its gratitude, all Albania’s governments over the past thirty years have supported US foreign policy and moreover have become actively involved, for example in Afghanistan and by joining the coalition against ISIS led by the US. During the 1999 Kosovo crisis, America spearheaded NATO’s intervention and supported Kosovo’s subsequent independence in 2008. Albania’s strategic partnership with the US was formalised in 2013, when Tirana and Washington signed a strategic partnership agreement. In popular sentiment too, the US is perceived by Albanians as their country’s most important strategic ally, a relationship more valued than that with the European powers, including the European Union, with which Tirana claims strategic relations.

According to annual surveys conducted by the Albanian Institute of International Studies, both the US and the EU enjoy strong public support in Albania, with approval ratings of 90 % and 91 %, respectively. They are regarded as the most important strategic partners in Albania’s international relations. 

“It’s (not) the economy, stupid!”

For decades, Albanians believed that the US would one day liberate them from communism. This hope endured for 50 years, until it finally happened in 1991, when Secretary of State James Baker was welcomed in Tirana with much popular fanfare. Since then, Albania has built a solid relationship with the US, a relationship which is contributing to Albania’s democratic transformation. Yet, one key area remains underdeveloped: the economy.

Despite various economic agreements, trade between the two countries remains minimal, and US investments in Albania continue to be small. The reasons can be attributed to Albania’s unattractive investment environment, weak rule of law and high corruption levels. Moreover, Albania’s small market size makes it of peripheral interest for American companies and other FDI. Western countries dominate in foreign investments in Albania. These include Italy, Switzerland, Canada, the Netherlands, Greece and Austria, with Hungary also emerging as a player in the last three years. Within this group, the majority of investments come from EU member states in strategic sectors like banking, energy and construction, with Switzerland accounting for 16% and Canada 12%. Turkey is another significant foreign investor, contributing 7.6%. Regarding trade, China currently holds the third position after the EU and Turkey, although Chinese investments have been inconsistent.

Moreover, other Balkan states have much stronger economic ties to the US than Albania. In 2023, US investments amounted to a modest figure of 32 million euros, just four million more than investments from Kosovo. Countries like the Netherlands, Switzerland, Austria, Canada, Turkey and Greece all have a larger presence. Over the past 20 years, US investments in Albania amounted to 232 million dollars, while US investments in Serbia were 4 billion dollars for the same period. On the other hand, trade and economic investments from the EU are vastly larger, confirming that the EU is the strategic ally for Albania when it comes to the economy. The volume of trade for 2022 alone between Albania and the EU was 7.1 billion euros, while investments reached 382 million euros. Since 2020, through the European Investment Plan, the EU has already mobilized 1.4 billion euros in investments, of which 470 million are grants.

Back to the future

More than 30 years after re-establishing ties, Albania-US relations are in transition. What does the future hold at a time when foreign policy is becoming increasingly transactional, raising concerns that a strategic partnership can become a ‘client-patron’ relationship. A century ago, Albanian leaders lobbied in Washington for the independence and existence of Albania as an independent sovereign state. In April 1939, just 48 hours before fascist Italy invaded Albania, King Zog tearfully summoned the American ambassador for an urgent and special audience, asking for help, saying that “only the US can save Albania and its independence”. Against this historical legacy and in sharp contrast to how foreign democratic powers such as Germany or Norway gain influence in Washington, contemporary Albanian leaders, caught in an extreme zero-sum game for power, try to buy support in Washington to gain advantages over their political opponents at home.

How will this strategic partnership develop? Will Albania continue to say ‘yes’ to every US request, as it did when it sheltered MEK, a former terrorist group, and Afghan refugees fleeing the Taliban regime? Will Albania continue to favour the US over Western Europe, as it did in 2003 when it chose an alliance with ‘New Europe’ against ‘Old Europe’? Moreover, how will this affect Albania’s EU ambitions, when the US itself supports Albania’s future in the EU? This readiness to agree to every request risks transformation into a client-patron relationship, thereby making it harder to maintain a strategic partnership.

Besides being the ‘guardian angel’ of Albania’s independence and statehood, the US has known since the rigged 1945 elections that only a democratic Albania can be a partner to the US and the West. Moreover, only a democratic Albania can join the EU. Sliding into autocracy and the failure to build a democratic and functional state undermines the strategic partnership. Albania’s economic relations with the US shone brightly 75 years ago, but today must be regarded as poor. The reasons can be found in Albania’s market economy not functioning properly as the rule of law is not being strictly enforced.

Finally, with a culture of total dependency, Albania behaves as if it were a protectorate or as if it has just emerged from a colonial regime. Every group or individual with a grievance – students, unions, prisoners, LGBT groups, minorities, journalists, women’s organisations, veterans, political parties and their leaders, the mayor, the chief justice, the opposition leader – even the head of parliament and the president – pen letters of complaint or clarification to the international community. This starts with the US ambassador, who is at the centre of media attention as if he or she were the country’s viceroy.

A potential turning point in US-Albanian relations might emerge with the new US  administration. It is difficult to believe that President Trump would give significant attention to the Western Balkans, given the more pressing preoccupation with Russian aggression against Ukraine and a worsening crisis in the Middle East. However, geopolitically, the Balkans are significant in light of Russia’s proxy policies in its confrontation with the US and the West. As such, it is not impossible for the Trump administration to mediate a resolution to the frozen conflict between Serbia and Kosovo, thereby neutralising the main source of tensions in the region and Russia’s proxy policies. In 2020, Trump personally engaged in an agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, while over the past four years Washington and the EU have encouraged dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina on vehicle licence plates and other peripheral issues, hoping that a bottom-up approach would end the frozen conflict between the two states. It is not impossible that, with a top-down approach typical of Trump’s style, the two states could move toward mutual recognition as two independent states during his second term.

Changes are also expected in terms of intrastate relations. In recent years, we have seen a growing trend toward a more transactional approach in US foreign policy. Washington and the West, in general, have turned a blind eye to the increasingly autocratic regimes in the Western Balkans, including Albania.  Although such a trend may strengthen,  moving forward, a reflection and a more neutral role for Washington in Albania’s internal politics is needed.

After the Cold War, Albania managed to establish a privileged and exclusive relationship with the United States, mainly due to the unparalleled influence and role it played in an unstable Balkan region. Unfortunately, over the last ten years, this role has gradually diminished. So the future of Albania’s relations with the United States will depend on Albania’s ability to regain the key role it once held in the Balkans, at a time when Serbia has almost restored its relations with the US and the West.

Recommendations

Albania is a key country, alongside Serbia, for the stability and security of the Western Balkans. Surrounded by EU nations, the region directly impacts the European and Euro-Atlantic security environment. Since the end of the Cold War, US intervention was crucial in ending violent conflicts in the Balkans. Now, three decades later, only the continued engagement of the US and the EU can resolve the frozen conflict between Albanians and Serbs through the mutual recognition of Kosovo and Serbia as sovereign states.

Democratic backsliding, authoritarian tendencies and lingering totalitarian culture among Albania’s current political leaders could lead the country toward a one-party system, undermining relations with the US. Given the special relationship Albania shares with the US and the EU, both are in the best position to prevent the rise of a stabilocracy and the drift toward one-party rule.

Short-term transactional approaches and interests may entrench stabilocracies in the Western Balkans and will not foster democratic, responsible and uncorrupted governance. The new generation of Albanian political leaders — the ones who will take over from those who have dominated the political scene for three decades, whether in power or opposition — must move away from the dependency on the international community. They should offer fresh ideas to maintain US and EU support, ending the practice of purchasing influence for personal political gain in Washington or Brussels.

At the diplomatic level, US and EU envoys can assist in strengthening Albanian democracy by not acting as, or being perceived as, being external rulers of the country.

The essay ”From Staunch Enemy to Strategic Partner: Albanian-American Relations in Transition “ by Albert Rakipi is part of the book : “The United States and the Future of Europe,”  recently published (May 2025) by Springer.

Albert Rakipi currently serves as Chairman of the Albanian Institute for International Studies (AIIS) a think tank based in Tirana, Albania. He has PhD in International Relations from Bilkent University. Before assuming this position, he had previously served as Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Albania. Representative of AIIS to the European Security and Defense College (ESDC) .Albert Rakipi has played a key role  in establishing  the Tirana  Campus of the College of Europe  in 2022- 2024  through a special inception proposal and dedicated advocacy Dr. Rakipi is the Founder and Editor of the Albanian Journal of International Relations and Foreign Policy issues “Tirana Observatory”. Co-founder and co-editor of Tirana Times a weekly English Newspaper published in Tirana . His latest books are: “The Perils of Change” Albania’s Foreign Policy in transition”Albanian -Turkey Relations Continuity and Change,’ “Albania and Kosovo, Is Unification the Common Future “

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